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Written by Ken Clein
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Sunday, 27 June 2010 11:16 |
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This is the third in the DynastyFootballFan.com series on building a dynasty team. You can check out our first two articles; the Initial Draft Strategy and Quarterback Strategy too!
Running backs are the hardest position to fill on a fantasy squad so they are always at a premium. On a dynasty squad it is even harder to fill those RB starting spots because you add the element of time into the equation. Unlike QBs, RBs don't have a long shelf life. It often takes them a couple of years to reach fantasy relevance and then once they hit 30 they are put out to pasture...speaking from a fantasy perspective of course! So there's only a 5 or 6 year sweet spot for RBs compared to QBs, WRs or even TEs who can be productive for twice that long. Add to this predicament injuries, running back by committee, contracts and competition and it ends up being darn near impossible to find reliable, consistent year after year production from the RB position.
With these issues in mind, I have a few ideas on how to find your stud RBs, keep them during their prime and get rid of them to make room for the young and hungry. Here we go:
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Take a RB in the first round of you rookie draft almost every year. Not all RBs that you pick are going to turn to gold, you have to keep a steady supply of the premium guys coming through your roster. In the eight years I've been in my dynasty league I've only modified from this precept twice to take Larry Fitzgerald with the first pick overall in 2004 over Steven Jackson and to take Jeremy Maclin last year since I didn't have any RB slots left to fill. The other 6 drafts I took Willis McGahee in the 8th slot, Cadillac Williams in the 5th slot, DeAngelo Williams in the 6th slot, Adrian Peterson in the 1st slot and Rashard Mendenhall in the 10th slot. While I admit that there are times when you might want to take a QB or WR in the first, RBs should be the bulk of your picks. As you can see from mine a couple didn't work out (McGahee and Caddy), a couple did (DeAngelo and Peterson) and Mendenhall is ready for his opportunity. Make sure you keep your RB pipeline open all of the time. While picking in the first round can't guarantee success, picking RBs often in the first round guarantees access to the best talent and a better chance at finding a few that make a difference.
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Pick up free agent RBs that were past 1st round picks. The logic here of course is that often times people get impatient and don't want to wait for a RB to develop so they dump him right at the lowest point for the RB. Now, sometime that RB bounces back and sometimes he doesn't but if you pick him up before anybody can tell what's going to happen, you now have the opportunity to hang on to him if he does bounce back. Cedric Benson is a great example of this. He was left for dead both in the NFL and certainly in the fantasy world. For those of you who took a flier on him last pre-season before he broke out with Cincinnati you now have a 27 year-old RB that just came off a 1,200 yard, 6TD campaign. Good for you!
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Trade your best RBs at the peak of their performance. This is not a typo. I'm not kidding. Do you really want to keep that stud RB until he has no trade value left and you have nothing to replace him with? The answer is NO. I'm not advocating you get rid of Adrian Peterson when he's only 25, but if he's still producing at 28/29, trade him for a top 3 pick in your rookie draft and don't look back. You might lose out on a year or two of production from him, but you've enjoyed 6 or 8 years of production by that time and it's time to move on to greener pastures. A good example of this is when I traded Priest Holmes right after his two year unprecedented fantasy run in 2002/2003 during which he gained over 3000 yards and had 48 TDs. Crazy right? Well, in 2004 he was the 12th best fantasy back and then his injuries kicked in and two years later he was out of the league. I traded him for the first pick in the draft at which I took Larry Fitzgerald. Not a bad switch, right?
- Don't get rid of your RBs too early if they don't produce right away. Patience in dynasty leagues is in fact a virtue. Don't drop your rookies and 2nd year backs just because they are stuck behind a stud or have a chance and don't make the most of it. NFL careers are not linear. Once a guy produces he doesn't always produce and if a guy has an opportunity and fails doesn't mean when he gets another opportunity he will fail again. Be patient, keep an unproductive guy on your bench if you have the room and he has the size, speed and maturity to develop into a player. A friend of mine in our league has LaDanian Tomlinson and picked up Michael Turner as a rookie. Turner didn't produce for 4 years but he kept him on the roster. This was a strategic move for sure as a handcuff for LT, but he passed up on several opportunities to take another RB and didn't pull the trigger. He was rewarded in the last 2 years with a top 20 producer and it seems Turner will be around for another few years too. Don't get rid of a guy just because he's not producing.
These four precepts will help you gain traction in your league and build a RB pipeline that will keep your in the hunt for your league championship year after year. Don't be afraid to cut against conventional wisdom. If you have a low first round pick target guys that you think may drop and don't be afraid to take one of them. If you don't take a RB in the first round look in the third round to pick one up then as typically there is a pause after the first round of RBs taken and there will be values to find in the third. Good luck and happy hunting!
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 11 August 2010 01:04 |