Drew Nelson’s Early Hit:  Off-Season Report (July 28, 2010)

The off-season version of Drew Nelson’s Early Hit will focus on OTA and Training Camp activity, and any short-term and long-term fantasy implications.  If you would like to be notified when a new Early Hit column is published, please email theearlyhit@gmail.com and you will be added to the mailing list.  Comments, complaints, and threats can also be directed to that email account.

Red Flag Alert:  Sidney Rice

The News:  1500espn.com reported that Sidney Rice’s knee is only a mild concern.  The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that a decision on whether Rice needs to be placed on the active/PUP list will be likely made this week.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Concerns over Sidney Rice’s knee continue to linger and the reporting is clearly indicating that he will be limited or absent from early training camp activities.  Rice is projected to be a top fantasy contributor this year, but this lingering knee issue is reducing his value.  If you can wait, see what, if anything, he does in camp.  If you draft before he takes the field, let someone else take Rice.  His projected draft position is too high to risk on a knee that refuses to heal.

Red Flag Alert: The Whole Bengals Team

The News:  Our long national nightmare is over:  Terrell Owens has signed a one-year deal with Cincinnati.

The News:  The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that the Bengals, on the strength of Cedric Benson, are expected to focus on the running game again in 2010.

The News:  The surgically repaired knee of (recently acquired) Bengals wide receiver, Antonio Bryant, continues to be a problem, per ESPN.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Does this even need a Prognosis?  Benson certainly has some fantasy value.  The rest of the Bengals will just be entertaining to watch.  Dynasty perspective?  TO, Bryant, and Chad Johnson are on the same team.  The coaching staff is reportedly on the hot seat and the quarterback might – or might not, depending on what you read – be rapidly losing arm strength.  Who knows what this team will look like in a year?

It was a big week for rookies – a week with numerous signings and some interesting dynasty-related reporting.  Let’s quickly run down what we saw:

Rookie Watch:  Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys WR

The News:  Rookie wideout Dez Bryant has agreed to an offer from the Dallas Cowboys

Dynasty Prognosis: Dez Bryant is projected to eventually become an explosive receiver on an explosive offense, and is expected to move into the starting lineup in Dallas within the next couple seasons.  The most significant concern from a fantasy prospective was a potential holdout.  Bryant was taken lower than expected in the NFL draft and there was concern that he may “go Crabtree” and holdout for a deal more valuable than traditionally merited by his draft position.  The holdout has been avoided and Bryant is expected to join the Cowboys when camp opens.  Given his physical potential, the offense he’s joined, and the strong impression he made at OTAs, Dez Bryant should be considered a strong dynasty option at WR.

and then . . .

The News:  Multiple sources reported that Dez Bryant refused to carry Roy Williams pads, rejecting a traditional NFL rookie responsibility.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Someone should let Brandon Marshall know that he may have a challenger for the “Baby TO” nickname.

From a fantasy perspective, this means almost nothing.  Bryant quickly changed his tune and we can expect the Cowboys – and the press – to move past this within a couple days.

Rookie Watch:  Deji Karim, Jacksonville Jaguars RB

The News:  Sixth-round selection Deji Karim has signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars

Dynasty Prognosis:  Karim garnered excellent reviews in Jacksonville’s OTAs and is set to eventually taken over the back-up spot behind MJD.  While MJD will bury him in 2010, Karim should be on fantasy radars for two reasons:  he will likely be MJD’s “hand-cuff”, and thus has insurance value to MJD owners; and his solid OTA performance should set him up as a deep dynasty sleeper, if you have room to carry him on your bench.

Rookie Watch:  Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns QB

The News:  Colt McCoy has signed a four-year deal with the Cleveland Browns

Dynasty Prognosis:  McCoy is a tough one to call.  He was drafted to be the quarterback of the future in Cleveland, and sits behind only Delhomme and Seneca Wallace on the depth chart – this alone earns him dynasty value.  However, NFL scouts were not overly impressed with him as a prospect and he fell into the third round of the NFL draft, which clearly speaks to his long-term value.  His 2010 value is nil, but he should find a home on a deep dynasty roster due to the chance that he moves into a starting spot within a year or two.  He’ll be there late so don’t reach.

Rookie Watch:  Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers QB

The News:  NBC reported that Clausen and the Panthers reached an agreement on a four-year deal.

Dynasty Prognosis:  The same Prognosis that was made about Colt McCoy also applies here, except the argument for dynasty value is much stronger.  Clausen could potentially challenge Matt Moore for the starting spot within the year.  You can expect that the Carolina fans will call for a change if the untested Moore struggles early.  Clausen is expected to eventually take the helm in NC, but that does not necessarily justify a major dynasty investment.  Unless there is both a coaching change and some personnel changes, the Panthers will be a running team.  And with only Steve Smith as a receiving threat, the fantasy upside of any quarterback is limited.  Clausen is a solid dynasty selection, but don’t expect him to develop into more than a fantasy back-up or low-grade starter, unless the Panthers drastically change their offensive approach over the next couple years.

Rookie Watch:  Arrelious Benn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR

The News:  A second-round selection, Benn has signed with the Bucs and should be a full participant in training camp.

Dynasty Prognosis:  We mentioned Benn as part of a Tampa Bay assessment last week and his signing only supports that analysis.  He could develop into a contributor and should get some early playing time in Tampa.  Keep him at a moderate level on your dynasty draft board.

Rookie Watch:  James Stark, Green Bay Packers, RB

The News:  The Green Bay Press-Gazette reported that the Packers view sixth-round selection James Stark as a potential successor to Ryan Grant.

Dynasty Prognosis:  The reporting on Stark was exceptionally positive, but we’ve heard that about Green Bay backs before.  Grant continues to be one of the more underrated fantasy backs and has consistently delivered solid seasons for his owners.  So long as the Green Bay offense is clicking and Grant is delivering on the early downs, he’ll keep a firm hold on the starting job.

Nevertheless, Stark is worth a dynasty bench spot if you can spare it.  Eventually Grant will be replaced and his successor will presumably slide into a powerful offense in Green Bay (we doubt Aaron Rodgers is going anywhere).  You can buy him cheap, late in your draft.  He may be the next DeShawn Wynn, or the next Ryan Grant – most likely, he’ll be somewhere in between.

Rookie Watch:  Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns, RB

The News:  Hardesty has signed a four-year deal with the Browns

Dynasty Prognosis:  DynastyFootballFan has him pegged as the seventh-best rookie RB prospect and his signing only improves his standing as it means he’ll gain some favor with the Cleveland coaches, compared to his training camp opposition James Harrison (contract dispute).  Hardesty offers a mixed bag as a dynasty selection.  On the up side, he’s got a decent shot at winning the starting job within a season or two.  On the down side, he’s in Cleveland and there is little to no evidence that the Browns are poised to turn their offense around any time soon.  Justifiably, he’ll be a high selection in dynasty drafts – and a mid- to late-round selection in redraft leagues – but potential owners should be monitoring the camp battle and make sure not to pull the trigger too early on a Cleveland Brown.

Rookie Watch:  Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers, RB

The News:  The San Diego Union-Tribune reported that Mathews is expected to sign within the week.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Along with Dez Bryant, Mathews is considered one of the top dynasty prospects entering the league.  When he signs, we’ll take a deeper look at his potential, but we note this positive News here just in case your draft is coming soon and you’re waiting on him to sign.

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