Drew Nelson’s Early Hit:  Off-Season Report (July 21, 2010)

The off-season version of Drew Nelson’s Early Hit will focus on OTA and Training Camp activity, and any short-term and long-term fantasy implications.  If you would like to be notified when a new Early Hit column is published, please email theearlyhit@gmail.com and you will be added to the mailing list.  Comments, complaints, and threats can also be directed to that email account.

Red Flag Alert:  Chris Johnson

The News:  Multiple sources reported this week that Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans found a short-term solution to his contract dispute.  While the sides are expected to begin negotiations again in the spring, the short-term fix should put Johnson on the field for training camp.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Breathe easy.  Take him first overall in all formats.

St. Louis Rams Quarterbacks

The News:  ESPN expects that Sam Bradford will sign his contract within the next couple weeks.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Bradford has consistently indicated that he planned to be in camp on time and this news only supports the expectation that he’ll live be there on day one.  Bradford should be pretty high on your dynasty draft sheet and pretty low on your 2010 sheet.  Draft him in your dynasty league with the assumption that he’ll sign, be in camp on time, and be prepared to take over the St. Louis offense without much delay.  In the long-run, Bradford projects to be, at least, a starting fantasy quarterback – and if St. Louis can find a few more offensive weapons, he could climb toward the top of the league.  Take him early in your rookie draft and stash him.  In the short-term, he’s unlikely to make much noise in 2010.  However, St. Louis will likely be playing from behind most of the year so there will be plenty of opportunities for him to throw the ball.  Expect him to be on a fantasy team, but deep on the bench for most of this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receivers

The News:  Per the Baltimore Sun, Mike Wallace has been tagged by Football Outsiders as their top WR prospect for 2010.

Dynasty Prognosis:  This shouldn’t surprise anyone that watched him work toward the end of the year.  He’s a solid selection for 2010, a great dynasty buy, and looks positioned to soon by the top WR in Pittsburgh.  The only concern – and it is very slight – is the Steelers’ long-term plan.  With Ward aging and Holmes gone, and Mendenhall looking to take over in the backfield, the Steelers could be looking to get back to a run-first approach.  Moreover, Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have many lives left in Pittsburgh and one more public incident could be enough to see him moved to Oakland, I mean, another team.  Nevertheless, Wallace is a strong dynasty candidate and one that will go fast on draft day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterbacks

The News:  The Pewter Report noted that the Bucs have picked up an option to extend Josh Freeman’s contract.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Let me be clear:  I’m not saying he’ll be the second coming of fantasy legend Mike Alstott, but don’t disregard the dynasty potential in Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have committed to Freeman as being the quarterback of the future.  More importantly for his dynasty value, they drafted Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams.  As much as we’d all like to see the Caddy get back out on the Florida higways, he’s unlikely to have too many good years left.  The contract extension for Freeman paired with the two rookie wideouts tells us that the Bucs are looking to build a pass-first approach over the next few years.  Freeman, Benn, and Williams will have time to develop together, and offer the potential for decent fantasy production in two or three years.

Arizona Cardinals Quarterbacks

The News:  John Skelton signed a four-year deal with the Cardinals.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Yes, we are reporting on a fifth-round pick that has never seen the field.  Is he mentioned here because we’ll take any news we can get between OTAs and training camp?  Maybe . . . well, probably.

But he is also mentioned because the only two names above him on the depth chart are Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart.  Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart. 

You’re telling me there is no way Skelton could be running this offense by the end of the year?  Could be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald?

Plus, if you draft him, you get to see every other person in your league panic because they will have no idea who he is. 

He’s certainly a deep dynasty sleeper, but he could also be the Arizona starting quarterback within a couple years (or months).

New York Giants Wide Receivers

The News:  ESPN New York reported that Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks will compete for the starting split end job in New York.

Dynasty Prognosis:  Nicks can do this so we like his chances in this competition. 

Both of these players are going to get on the field and deserve fantasy roster spots, but the winner of this camp battle will have the edge in fantasy production and is likely to go a few rounds higher than the other.  If you can wait, keep an eye on Giants camp and make sure you know where they fall on the depth chart before you draft.

With Steve Smith, Manningham, and Nicks, and even Kevin Boss, clamoring for targets – plus a running-back duo that will get plenty of touches, no player is likely to be the focal point of the Giants offense.  Jacobs and Steve Smith will likely lead the team in touches, but there should still be plenty to make the winner of the Hicks/Manningham battle worth a spot on your team.

Seattle Seahawks Running Backs

The News:  According to Seahawks.com Pete Carroll expects that Leon Washington will be able to practice at training camp.

Dynasty Prognosis:  If this turns out to be true, it will be worth monitoring.  The door is open for a healthy Washington to grab the starting spot in Seattle.  But he’s far too big of a risk to draft without seeing what he can actually do on the field. 

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